MarketPMSourceStateΔ to triggerRCDaysΔ24hVol 24h
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HunchHunchHow the screener computes its scores and where the data comes from. Fair warning: this is informational, not financial advice.
Most prediction-market screeners stop at price feeds and order-book depth. Hunch looks one layer deeper: we read the live state of each market's own stated resolution criterion and score it directly.
For example, "Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?" resolves YES if Binance BTC/USDT prints ≥ $150,000 at any point before the deadline. We read the current BTC price from Binance, compute the gap to the threshold, and surface that distance to trigger alongside the Polymarket implied probability — letting you compare what the book thinks against what the underlying says.
Composite 0–100 score that blends three signals about how legible a market's resolution path is. Higher is better.
rc = 0.55 × distance_score + 0.30 × time_pressure + 0.15 × log_volume_score
100 · exp(-2.5 · |distance|). Falls off fast as the gap grows.RC is only computed when live.state == "live" — i.e. the resolution source is one we've wired (currently Binance spot prices). Other markets show — in the RC column.
Signed percentage from the current state of the underlying to the threshold the market resolves on. Positive means the underlying has to fall to trigger; negative means it has to rise.
The bar visualises this two-tone: green = how close we are (closeness = 100 − |distance|), red = how far is left. A ✓ "triggered" pill replaces the bar once the threshold has been crossed at any point.
The column sorts by absolute distance so the closest-to-trigger markets float to the top in ascending order — a quick way to find edge cases where the book disagrees sharply with the underlying.
Every market is bucketed into one of six families based on what its resolution rules look like. The chip row above the table filters by family.
Binance spot price thresholds. Live; we read the price every refresh.
FDV (fully-diluted valuation) at or after launch reaches some target. Deferred until on-chain wiring.
An entity's on-chain holdings move (e.g. MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin). Deferred — needs Arkham/explorer wiring.
A public sale of a token clears a target. Deferred.
UMA-arbitrated panel decides. No machine-readable trigger — flagged but never RC-scored.
Resolution rules our parser couldn't structure. Shown for completeness; treat with caution.
Coverage check: live-state families add up to ~92% of crypto-vertical volume on the snapshot.
The API at /api/markets returns the same projection the table renders, so you can build on top of it. Free, rate-limited, no auth.
The Yes / No buttons on each row open an inline order ticket that signs and posts a Polymarket V2 order through your connected wallet, with the Hunch builder code attached for retro/airdrop attribution.
0x1cc4300fca20eb0449c32d3c56d937d0a46e172d2707a62860b5f5311f2b608bAuth flow: your EOA signs an EIP-712 derivation message once per session; the resulting L2 API credentials are cached in sessionStorage for the rest of the tab. Orders are signed with SignatureType 3 (POLY_1271), the Polymarket deposit-wallet flow — the EOA signs, the deposit wallet (smart-contract proxy) is the funder.
Hunch is a presentation layer over publicly available data, for informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation. Prediction markets involve real money and real risk; only place orders you understand and can afford to lose. The screener does not custody funds — your wallet signs every order, your deposit wallet pays.